"We must stop confusing academic research with safety education."
My journey to find Akitaya has led me to some unexpected delights. One of the people whom I hoped could provide a path was Shinya-san. He turns 80 years old next year and has been - to oversimplify - the avalanche and mountain weather forecaster (link) in Niseko, Hokkaido since the dawn of time. His last forecast of the spring is below...and I will let it speak for itself.
At the risk of being blunt, perhaps it is time for a radical departure from the status quo. Should we not finally free ourselves from the obsession with “weak layers”? Has the weak-layer theory, born in Europe and spread through Japan, truly served to prevent avalanche accidents here? For 40 years, avalanche accidents have continued unabated, and many victims are those who had already acquired avalanche knowledge. I believe something is fundamentally wrong. Identifying the cause after a tragedy cannot restore the lost lives. Subjective pit checks and shovel tests simply do not seem to be effective tools for accident prevention. Are facets and depth hoar the only justification for avalanches? People seek knowledge, which is why avalanche seminars remain popular. What is needed now is practical, effective education—the kind that actually prevents accidents. We must stop confusing academic research with safety education. These are the views of the Niseko Avalanche Institute.
With that, we conclude the Niseko Avalanche Information for the season.
I painted a similar argument in my essay, Is Avalanche Education a Bad Thing? from 2023. It draws from Slovic, Richards, and Wilde.
I wrote to Shinya-san, seeking to understand more of the history of avalanche safety in Japan. His reply, which I'll print next week, was a gift. But first we spoke of this spring's kobushi magnolias and wild cherry blossoms. Special thanks to Matthew Standal...
See you next week -
Drew
