Avalanche
(A Companion Piece to #nothingbadhappened) All too often, we find ourselves unable to predict what will happen; yet after the fact we explain what did happen with a great deal of confidence. This “ability” to explain that which we cannot predict, even in the absence of additional information, represents an
Avalanche
(photo credit: Mark White) I cribbed the name from an essay by Iain Stewart-Patterson, a mountain guide and faculty staff member of Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia. His dissertation: The Role of Intuition in the Decision Process of Canadian Ski Guides. You can find his essay in a recent
Meditations
I’ve been thinking a great deal about the Judge lately. He’s the one who keeps us from reaching – what? - fulfillment, potential, Nirvana, whatever we aspire to. “Who are you,” he asks, “to be something in this world?” In some translations of the Old Testament, he is sometimes
Meditations
So there are these two guys sitting together in a bar in the remote Alaskan wilderness. One is an atheist, the other, shall we say, a God-fearing man, and they're arguing about the existence of God, with that special intensity that comes after about the fourth beer. And
Avalanche
In his novel, The Crossing, Cormac McCarthy describes a scene where the two boys, having just crossed the border into Mexico, come into the company of an old man and ask him directions to the ranch of which they seek.The old man proceeded to sketch in the dust streams
Avalanche
Bias, Variance and Loss in Avalanche Forecasting by Peter Donner Revised: April 9, 2019 Statistical theory is relevant to avalanche forecasting through the concepts of bias, variance, and loss. Bias is the systematic difference between the forecast and actual conditions. Variance is the random difference and captures the notion that
Avalanche
A few years ago, one of my best friends was caught in an avalanche somewhere north of here. The avalanche was triggered from above - another skier on the slope - and as the Leviathan roared down, he pushed another skier out of the way toward safety...and suffered the
Avalanche
Originally published in this winter's hardcopy issue of Ascent, the Backcountry Snow Journal Not long ago, I heard a story from an old colleague of mine. It was his first year as an avalanche professional and he was out in the field with his supervisor. The two of
Avalanche
From Ed LaChapelle's essay The Ascending Spiral in The Avalanche Review 24.1 (photo credit -Wilburn and Jean Pickett Photograph Collection, University of Utah Marriott library archives) “Do nothing in haste”......this speaks loud and clear to the pressures of time, planning and economics, plus the perpetual urge
Avalanche
A few people have suggested that I condense my Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop/International Snow Science Workshop presentation into an article. There are very few well-documented cases of dry snow avalanches being triggered by solar radiation and/or warming. (cover photo: Todd Glew - Gobber's Knob, Big
Avalanche
In his seminal book The Hunters or the Hunted, the celebrated anthropologist Charles Kimberlin "Bob" Brain postulated that it was our relationship to monsters that established us as we are today. As a native of Tasmania, Brain wrote not about a whirling devil, so to speak, but of
Avalanche
Chris Cawley, Alta Ski Patrolman and frequent backcountry observer, recently shared a great link from NPR about "free will" with decision making...that, according to author Sam Harris, "our brains decide a course of action before we know about it". I thinking about it, it may