Dear Backcountry Skier -

I first want you to know that I am one of you: I love skiing powder and hate crossing other tracks. I love making my own decisions in the mountains and I also love occasionally triggering avalanches.

But as a backcountry avalanche forecaster for 26 years, there's something I want you to know: I am not as good a forecaster as you might think I am.

A few years ago, I put out a forecast of LOW and people made their plans. In many cases, they chose consequential avalanche terrain. That day, they noted the strong winds blowing and drifting snow. They felt the snow stiffening into wind slabs underneath their feet. They saw shooting cracks.

People did not find LOW danger in the backcountry.

And that's just one example.

So.

As we approach the coming winter, I want to remind you of something:

When I put out a backcountry avalanche forecast, I am making my best estimate on the overall avalanche danger in the backcountry. I'm painting a danger rose with 24 petals on that rose: three elevation bands and eight points on the compass. I'm choosing up to three different significant avalanche problems and assigning probabilities, sizes, and "exact" locations on another locator rose as to where you might encounter these dragons.

There are hundreds of decisions that I make before publishing the forecast.

There's a chance I might be wrong somewhere.

So before you commit to a slope, I want you to remember that an avalanche forecast is guidance and not gospel: it's my best estimate of what you will find out there, but it's your job to treat the forecast as your starting point or hypothesis and then use all of your education, experience, intuition, teamwork and wiles and so much more to see if my forecast is accurate.

THEN make your decision.

And when you get home safely, come and tell me about it.

Have a great winter.